Is Uncertainty Making Us More Superstitious?

The need to feel that we are in control of our lives is so basic to our sense of well being that many people may be finding safe harbor from uncertainty in superstitious thinking. When any aspect of our life spins out of control, as it has for many during these uncertain economic times, our need for control and order is so compelling that we will trick ourselves into finding patterns where none exist to stave off a growing sense of unease and anxiety. We may see trends in stock market activity or find unintended meanings in business meetings or impose hidden agendas on government announcements — all in an attempt to bring order to chaos. 

Human “desire to combat uncertainty and maintain control through structure can sometimes be so all consuming that people trick themselves into seeing and believing things that simply do not exist,” explains David Butcher of ThomasNet Industrial Market Trends in an online article about compelling new research published in the journal Science.

In a series of experiments conducted by Jennifer Whitson, assistant professor at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas-Austin and Adam Galinsky, Morris and Alice Kaplan Professor of Ethics and Decision in Management at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, lack of control caused study participants to “see images in noise, form illusory correlations in stock market information and even perceive conspiracies and develop superstitions,” Butcher noted.

“The less control people have over their lives, the more likely they are to try and regain control through mental gymnastics,” Galinsky said. In one experiment, people were shown pages of random dots, half formed images, half did not. Nearly half of study participants found discernible shapes in the dots without images. Finding patterns even when there were none had a calming effect on study participants and made them feel more in control.

Researchers applied the same principle to stock market investment. Study participants were given an equal ratio of positive to negative information about two companies. Those told that the market was volatile placed more weight on negative comments, determining investment to be riskier than it actually was. In another experiment, participants who lacked control were quick to find conspiracies lurking behind ordinary events. For example, in a story of a worker passed over for promotion, participants blamed co-worker sabotage.

On Friday: Conclusions